In the Rear View

They always say, hindsight is 20/20, well let’s look back to see what this past week can tell us about where we might be headed.

Michael Sonnenshein, CEO of Grayscale, says that institutional adoption is spreading, favorable regulation is being put into place, and the growth of North American Digital Asset mining is materializing in 2021. According to eToro, more institutions will warm up to crypto once market cap hits $2T.

There is no better hedge against inflation than Bitcoin and more tech companies will adopt Bitcoin treasury reserves, says ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood and Ari Paul reminds us that institutions aren’t piling into Bitcoin to get rich, they’re piling into Bitcoin to stay rich.

On the regulatory front, Silver Lake Co-Founder Glenn Hutchins tells Davos cash is used far more in crime than Bitcoin. Even Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says Digital Assets have the potential to improve the financial system. Michael Saylor believes the Tether Fud is irrelevant and that it won’t stop Bitcoin. He believes that friendly regulation will push money into Bitcoin as price will replace S&P 500. “It will grow 200% per year until it has demonetized Gold, Silver, Sovereign Debt, Bond Indexes, Stock Indexes and more.” The Bank of Singapore agrees and says Digital Assets could replace Gold as a store of value. Anthony Scaramucci, Skybridge COO, says big investors could push Bitcoin above $500,000.

So, February could be a very big month for Bitcoin if the MicroStrategy conference goes well. But remember, it was retail traders, not hotshots like MicroStrategy, that made Bitcoin in 2020. Of course the average person will ask, what will drive Bitcoin to such lofty heights? Bitcoin social volume spike could signal incoming euphoria as Max Keiser predicts the looming Bitcoin supply crisis will hammer institutions, causing price to skyrocket in an instant.

Jim Cramer’s advice for the $731M Powerball winner was to put 5% in Bitcoin; doesn’t that blow your mind? Bill Miller says 'There is no other asset that combines Bitcoin's liquidity with its upside potential' and not owning BTC is a ‘massive mistake.’ Just remember, Bitcoin could be another store of wealth but it is an untested asset in a "very small market," according to BlackRock CEO Laurence Fink.

Hold your horses, not everyone is so bullish on the space. According to Barclays Private Bank chief market strategist Gerald Moser says Bitcoin is 'almost uninvestable.' JPMorgan says Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets could "erode" its "diversification value over time," and has failed to perform as a hedge as opposed to other more traditional assets. In addition, Bitcoin is a 'risk' rather than a 'safe' asset and institutional demand is not strong enough to push Bitcoin above $40,000.

Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff says that he doesn't see Bitcoin succeeding, barring extenuating circumstances. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said Digital Assets "as originally formulated" are not the ideal form of digital currency, but just “advertised” XRP by criticizing cross-border payments. BIS Chief Agustín Carstens blasts Bitcoin’s viability, prompting blowback from advocates. Guggenheim's Scott Minerd claims that Bitcoin's investor base is not big and deep enough and that's why he's bearish on Bitcoin. But we all know why he’s saying this - he wants a lower price BTC so he can get off zero!

So where are we headed? To the Moon! As I like to say, stay STRONG and HODL on!

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